26 de julio 2024
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According to the electoral calendar, Venezuelans will be heading to the polls to choose their president in less than a week. In the short time left, the obstacles set up to block the popular will from full expression have been accumulating at an alarming rate. No doubt they’ll be increasing over the next few days. Although it seems improbable, we can’t even rule out the possibility of the regime’s stopping the process altogether. And it’s very possible that if the opposition wins – and all the serious polls give them an overwhelming majority – the regime could manipulate the results, or even refuse to recognize them.
That’s how somber the panorama is. The desperation of dictator Nicolas Maduro and his accomplices is ever more evident, expressed through all sorts of schemes to perpetuate him in the presidency. The people have rejected these maneuvers, but their real power, beyond the rallies, the protests and the vote, is limited. We can only hope it will be conclusive and sufficient.
The data on the voter preferences is eloquent. According to the most recent poll, from the Delphos Company and the Andres Bello Catholic University, if the election were held today, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, the candidate for the unified opposition, would win with 59.1% of the vote, while Maduro would barely obtain 25%. The remaining votes would be split among the minor candidates.
Given the population’s palpable enthusiasm for Gonzalez, magnified to the maximum degree by the charisma and energy of the unstoppable Maria Corina Machado, it’s very possible that these numbers hold steady or even grow between now and next Sunday. In other words, the panorama for the official party is very dim. In the face of this reality, they’ve multiplied their ploys to derail the popular will by any means necessary.
It’s common knowledge that the Maduro regime outlawed the candidacy of the most important rival candidates, especially Machado, in order to leave the ballot for her coalition, the Democratic Unity Platform, empty of leadership. However, her quick substitution of Gonzalez, a man nearly unknown up until then, added to the energy of the movement and gave it new, strong winds.
In the last month, over 70 opposition leaders have been detained under bogus charges. The regime has even charged the people hired to supply water to Machado’s followers. Still, they haven’t been able to stop the democratic wave.
The electoral registry of Venezuelans residing outside the country has been hindered to an extreme degree, leaving millions unable to exercise their citizens’ right to vote.
As a tactic to generate confusion, Maduro – who’s not only the candidate representing Venezuela’s United Socialist Party, but also the nominee of a series of tiny parties he controls – will appear on the ballot more than ten times. In addition, the National Electoral Council, also controlled by the governing party, has situated him on the upper part of the electoral ballot.
On Thursday, July 18, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado denounced on social media that the vehicles she and her campaign team use were vandalized by agents of Maduro in the north-central city of Barquisimeto. These agents also surrounded the residential area where she and her team were spending the night, and among other outrages, “cut the brake line” of the vehicle she was traveling in.
Added to the above is a constant series of intimidating messages from Maduro. In the most recent one, also on July 18, he threatened that if he’s not reelected the country could face a “bloodbath,” and a “civil war” provoked by “the fascists” – the unoriginal epithet he uses to refer to the democratic groupings. Later that week, his rhetoric grew still more venomous, saying that on July 28, “the decision is between war or peace, violent protests or calm, a project for a homeland or a colony, democracy or fascism.”
“Are you prepared?” he repeated. “I’m prepared. I have love for Venezuela; I have the experience; and I’m afraid of nothing, not even the devil,” he added.
All of this is a sign that his disposition to turn over power is virtually nil. The essential variables to consider are whether pressure from the people will persuade him; or whether other centers of power inside or outside the country can force him to do so, if he refuses to recognize a loss. Without a doubt, the will for a return to democracy is present. However, the possibility of that really happening is doubtful to the extreme. Nonetheless, the intent must not be abandoned.
*Editorial published in the newspaper “ La Nacion de Costa Rica.”
This article was published in Spanish in Confidencial and translated by Havana Times. To get the most relevant news from our English coverage delivered straight to your inbox, subscribe to The Dispatch.
