19 de noviembre 2024
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Some of the first cabinet picks by President-elect Donald Trump are sparking controversy in Congress.
Stephen Miller and Tom Homan, both prominent figures in anti-immigration policies, have been tapped to lead mass deportation efforts. Billionaire Elon Musk will head a new “efficiency” department to slash budgets and dismantle parts of the federal government. Anti-vaccine activist Robert Kennedy Jr. has been named Secretary of Health, while former Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz, who is under investigation for alleged sexual misconduct with minors, has been nominated as Attorney General.
Emily Mendrala, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the State Department until May 2024, said the appointments are no surprise. “President Trump’s policies and the promises he made during his campaign are about breaking the federal government system, and he’s nominating people who don’t believe in the very system they are supposed to lead,” she explained.
In an interview on Esta Semana, a program broadcast on Confidencial’s YouTube channel due to television censorship in Nicaragua, Mendrala—who also advised the Biden White House on immigration—pointed out that Trump’s plans for mass deportations face serious obstacles.
“They’ll need to negotiate with countries to accept planes carrying their nationals. Beyond that, they’ll require enormous resources from Congress—resources they don’t currently have—for facilities, planes, and deportation personnel. And that’s without even considering the impact mass deportations could have on the U.S. economy or the challenges Latin American countries would face in absorbing large numbers of deportees.”
Now an advisor at the consulting firm Dinámicas Américas, Mendrala also commented on the nomination of Cuban-American Senator Marco Rubio, a well-known foreign policy “hawk,” as Secretary of State. She suggested the role would push Rubio to balance his ideological tendencies with pragmatic governance.
“Let’s see: being Secretary of State is different from being a Senator,” Mendrala explained. “He has extensive experience in Latin America, knows many leaders well, and will have to work not just from his perspective but within the Trump administration and its team to implement the president’s vision. Latin America, of course, will receive more attention, and I hope that will be for the better,” she noted.
Mass Deportations and Tariffs
There’s significant controversy surrounding some of the cabinet nominations by President-elect Donald Trump. Let’s start with those tasked with implementing central aspects of his electoral platform: anti-immigration policies and mass deportations. Tom Homan, now being called the “Border Czar,” and Stephen Miller, the Deputy Director of White House Policy, are pivotal figures. What do these appointments signify?
Both worked during Trump’s first administration. They were instrumental in implementing his border and external policies, including Migrant Protection Protocols and Asylum Cooperation Agreements with countries in the region to expedite removals. They also enforced policies like family separations at the border. They are deeply familiar with the federal system and are prepared to push forward plans for mass deportations, understanding how to navigate the U.S. government apparatus.
What does it take to carry out mass deportations? For instance, if deportees are from Mexico, Venezuela, Honduras, or Nicaragua, does the U.S. government need to negotiate with those countries?
In some cases, yes. The U.S. has existing agreements with many Latin American countries to deport individuals who are in the U.S. illegally or have crossed the border without authorization. These agreements require those countries to accept their nationals. However, some countries either don’t comply or lack agreements with the U.S.
Take Venezuela, for example. While the U.S. has managed to deport some Venezuelans in recent years, Venezuela stopped accepting its nationals last year. If Trump’s administration wants to restart deportations, they’ll need to negotiate a new agreement with Venezuela.
Could President Trump’s administration pursue a transactional policy if it wants to carry out mass deportations? There may be other issues in the relationship with these countries that could lead to negotiations. Are these actions something the U.S. Government might not carry out entirely unilaterally?
Of course, negotiations and agreements are needed. It can’t be done unilaterally, because the country has to agree to accept the return of their nationals and allow the planes to land. When it comes to the transactional approach, we saw in Trump’s first administration that it handled many global relationships in this way, and we can expect that to continue in his second term as well.
In the case of Nicaragua, for example—there are between 150,000 and 300,000 people who could be part of the pool of potential deportees because they’re in an irregular situation in the United States. While Manuel Orozco mentioned that at least 10,000 could be on the shortlist for deportation, it’s still a very large number.
The mass deportation plans proposed by the Trump administration will require many resources they currently don’t have. They’ll need to work with Congress to secure the funding necessary to carry out their plans. For instance, there are no facilities to hold people before deporting them. There’s no money for planes or the officers needed to find people in irregular status for deportation. They really face a lot of challenges with these plans, not to mention the potential impact on the U.S. economy and the strain it could place on Latin American countries having to receive mass deportees from the U.S.
Another priority for Trump is to prioritize the economic interests of the United States, especially those of U.S. businesses, and to contain China’s strong economic presence in South America and Mexico. Does this mean tariffs will be imposed on products from Chinese companies or supply chains?
They’ve said they’re studying whether to impose tariffs on China or globally, or on certain supply chains linked to Mexico. Many economists are analyzing the administration’s plans and argue that tariff policies are inflationary. Trump’s economic policies could have a negative impact on the U.S. economy, especially in terms of inflation, so it’s unclear whether, after reviewing these plans, they’ll adjust based on the feedback they’ve received from economists.
Marco Rubio: Ideologue or Pragmatist?
The nomination of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State has been highlighted because he’s a senator who has taken a hard stance on China, Iran, and Russia, until he moderated his position on the war in Ukraine and also his criticism of the dictatorships in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. Does the new Secretary of State represent a more ideological or pragmatic approach?
Let’s see. Being Secretary of State is different from being a senator. He has a lot of experience in Latin America, knows many leaders very well, and will be working not only with his own opinions but also with the Trump administration and its team. He will need to collaborate with them to implement the president’s vision. Latin America will, of course, receive more attention, and I hope that’s for the better.
However, it seems that the primary focus of U.S. foreign policy will be the Ukraine crisis. And then there’s Iran and the Middle East crisis.
Of course, he’ll have to address what’s happening around the world, and all U.S. administrations have to do that. There will be many priorities, but he can handle multiple priorities at once.
Senator Rubio will have a large team at the State Department, and many of his team members have been trained in the Civil Service. I’m talking about people who’ve spent their entire careers at the State Department, working under both Republican and Democratic administrations. They manage policies toward Latin America that cover a broad range of issues, not just political ones, and many of them are highly experienced.
The relationship with Latin America has primarily been dominated by migration and the fight against drug trafficking, but there’s also a lot of talk about the dictatorships in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. What is the outlook for U.S. policy toward these three regimes?
The incoming team has focused heavily on authoritarian governments, and the Biden administration has had this same focus. We’ll see what changes they make regarding these countries.
In the case of Cuba, which has just gone through hurricanes and a power grid failure, many people are suffering a lot right now, and I hope there will be some humanitarian aid to help the people—not the government.
I believe the incoming team will focus a lot on how to promote democracy and support pro-democracy activists in these countries. There could also be room for dialogue or negotiation, and we’ll see how they handle this if that opportunity arises.
In the case of Venezuela, what lessons or takeaways does the Trump administration have from its first term in dealing with the crisis there?
A lot has changed in the four years since the first administration. We know that the opposition in Venezuela can win an election, and they did. They received the majority of the votes in that election. Now, both the international community and the Venezuelan opposition are trying to figure out what comes next and what the plan is to keep up the momentum they had during the election when they truly won the majority of votes.
In the case of Nicaragua, do you think the new administration will view it as part of the “troika,” as Mr. John Bolton from the State Department once called it, or as a dictatorship different from Cuba and Venezuela?
They’ve said they see it as part of the troika, but each country is different and requires a different approach and treatment in U.S. policy.
They will have a U.S. embassy that is very committed to democracy in Nicaragua, very engaged with civil society, and also imposing sanctions and other measures against anti-democratic actors in Nicaragua. Sanctions like the ones they announced today against over 200 Nicaraguan government officials.
U.S. sanctions can have an impact, but more comprehensive policy is needed to truly support civil society. By working with others in the international community and civil society groups—including those in exile—they can make a real difference.
The Dismantling of the Federal Government
Other nominations to Trump's cabinet could have a domestic impact on the organization of the federal government in the United States. Robert Kennedy Jr. has been nominated to head the entire health sector, and on the other hand, former Congressman Matt Gaetz has been nominated as Attorney General. One wants to dismantle the Department of Health, and the other proposes to abolish the Department of Justice.
Given President Trump's policies and the promises he made during his campaign to break the federal government system, these nominations aren’t a big surprise to me.
He wants to impose many changes on the system, not just reduce federal spending but also break the way the system operates. In addition to nominating people who don’t believe in the systems they are supposed to lead, he has said that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a Government Efficiency Department, which wouldn’t be a federal entity, but something separate from the government to try to reduce those budget expenses.
I’m concerned that many high-ranking individuals in federal departments and agencies will retire because they disagree with the new administration’s policies. Also, since Elon Musk isn’t very familiar with the federal system, he will make mistakes in his efforts.
Is there any concern about what Trump has called the “politics of retribution,” or what some are calling revenge, against his political adversaries?
Many fear that. There are already lists of people, especially in the civil services, who have worked in these departments and agencies throughout their careers, but the team coming in January believes that they have some link to the Democrats or that they will try to frustrate the implementation of President Trump’s vision.
They are really experts, they have a lot of experience in policies, and they are crucial for helping with a government transition to assist the team in managing bureaucracy, policies, and continuing processes. They shouldn’t feel like they are in a courtroom.
This article was published in Spanish in Confidencial and translated by our staff. To get the most relevant news from our English coverage delivered straight to your inbox, subscribe to The Dispatch.
