28 de diciembre 2021
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A poll by the CID Gallup firm, sponsored by CONFIDENCIAL, was carried out between December 5th and 13th. It revealed that President Daniel Ortega would have received 27% of the votes and not the 75.8% assigned by the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). The candidates of the five allied parties would have added 38% of the votes, with 20% voting null or blank. Another 15% chose not to answer the question.
CID Gallup consulted a sample of 1000 persons nationwide who possessed an active cell phone line. To the question did you vote on November 7th? a total of 58% said yes and 42% said they did not.
To those who did vote, CID Gallup asked: which candidate did you vote for? and the answers were Daniel Ortega (FSLN), 27%; Walter Espinoza (PLC), 15%; invalid vote, 13%; Guillermo Osorno (CCN), 11%; blank vote, 7%; Gerson Gutiérrez (APRE), 6%; Marcelo Montiel (ALN), (3%); Mauricio Orue (PLI), 3%, and 15% did not answer the question.
The results of the 1000 telephone interviews have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 points, and a confidence level of 95%, said CID Gallup.
According to the survey sample, 52% of those surveyed were women and 48% are men; 22% are between 16 and 24 years old, 26% between 25 and 34 years old, 23% between 35 and 44 years old, 15% between 45 and 54 years old, and 7% over 55. Regarding educational levels, 44% have primary education, 44% high school, and 12% university education.
The November 7 voting was a process without political competition and under the shadow of repression and the de facto police state imposed by the Ortega regime. The General Assembly of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of American States (OAS) approved a resolution on November 12th confirming that the voting process, under which Ortega and Murillo were re-elected, “was not free, fair or transparent and has no democratic legitimacy.”
The CID Gallup poll verified that the CSE is without credibility or trust
“In general, the population does not believe in the data provided by the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) on the percentage of people who voted and those who did so for Daniel Ortega. In addition, they say the statistics were not legitimate,” quotes a synthesis of the findings made by CID Gallup.
“Two out of every five interviewed said they did not vote in the elections. Most of these said they knew Ortega was going to win and that they did not like the candidates who participated,” adds the analysis of the polling firm.
Majority affirms that elections have no legitimacy
The CID Gallup poll also delved into respondents' perception of the legitimacy of the voting process. To the premise, "the elections of November 7 were legitimate", 66% of those consulted said they disagree or strongly disagree. Only 28% of those consulted said they agree or strongly agree with the supposition.
Another premise raised was whether the elections were credible. 68% of those surveyed said they disagreed or strongly disagreed with this statement. 27% said they agree or strongly agree with it.
To the question, "do you believe that Daniel Ortega obtained 75% of the votes," 76% of those consulted said they disagreed with this statement, while only 20% agreed with it.
Of those consulted 71% also said they disagreed with the government’s statement that there was a "65% citizen participation in the elections," in contrast to 25% who agreed.
Nicaragua after November 7
The polling firm also sought out the public perception of the general situation in Nicaragua after the November 7 vote.
A majority of 70% responded that the re-election of Daniel Ortega implies little or no positive change for the country. Only 24% said that the continuation of Ortega will mean a positive change for Nicaragua.
Likewise, 56% indicated there is less political and social stability in Nicaragua after the events of November 7th. Meanwhile, 22% said that everything remains the same, while another 22% responded that there was more political and social stability in the country than before the voting.
Also, 54% responded that the permanence of Ortega in office will bring less prosperity and security for Nicaraguans; 22% said completely the opposite, and 24% believe that there has been no change, and that everything will continue as is.
“After the elections, political stability and prosperity doesn’t appear a possibility or that there will be a positive change in the country. Most of the population does not consider fair a third consecutive reelection of Ortega, especially people between 25 and 44 years old. In addition, they do not foresee greater support for his new term," adds the synthesis of the CID Gallup findings.
Sanctions are the product of the violence of Ortega
The issue of sanctions by the international community against the regime's operators was addressed by the polling firm. To the premise "the international sanctions against the Government are a direct result of Daniel Ortega's violation of democracy and human rights", 67% of those consulted agreed.
Questioned if "international sanctions against the Government are an act of interference by powerful countries against national sovereignty," only 20% said yes.
Party sympathies vary slightly
Party sympathies towards political forces varied slightly from the CID Gallup poll carried out in October. It remains evident how little support these organizations have. The results also contrast with the percentage of votes assigned by the CSE in November.
Of those surveyed, the Sandinista Front was the leading political force with a 14% preference. A small increase compared to October, when it was 9%. It is followed by Camino Cristiano with 8% - up from 1% in October. Ciudadanos por la Libertad, went from 5% in October to 7% in December.
“The governing Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) has only one follower in every seven Nicaraguans. These are proportionally more in Managua, the capital city,” indicates the analysis of the polling firm.
Ciudadanos por la Libertad emerged as the main opposition political force until the CSE took away its legal status, removing it from the ballot, after a complaint filed by the PLC, Ortega’s main political ally.
Precisely, the CSE once again assigned the PLC the role of second political force, by granting it 14.33% of the votes and guaranteeing an automatic legislative seat to its presidential candidate, Walter Espinoza.
The CID Gallup poll found that party preference for the PLC is 4%, unchanged since October. The opposition platform Alianza Cívica registered 2% support, while its counterpart from the National Coalition only 1%.
This article was originally published in Spanish in Confidencial and translated by Havana Times
