22 de julio 2024
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With a speech lasting more than 55 minutes, broadcast on national radio and television, Daniel Ortega celebrated the 45th anniversary of the ousting of Anastasio Somoza’s dictatorship at a party rally on July 19. The event highlighted the isolation of the Ortega family dictatorship, in the presence of officials from Russia, Belarus, Cuba, Venezuela, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, and Palestine.
In an interview with Esta Semana, broadcast this Sunday, July 21 on CONFIDENCIAL's YouTube channel, Dora María Téllez, historian and political activist, analyzed Daniel Ortega’s speech, as well as what the official images did not show: the increased repression and political surveillance before July 19, the new purges in the Government, and the imprisonment by orders of Vice President Rosario Murillo of high-ranking retired military officers, accused of “unauthorized corruption activities”.
This Friday marked the end of the partisan celebration of July 19, which began several months ago with a wave of repression and police surveillance against hundreds of people who were placed under a de facto house arrest regime. Why does this repressive wave always erupt in the days leading up to July 19?
Dora María Téllez: They have an immense fear of any activity that they cannot control. With each passing day, the obsession of the Ortega-Murillo regime is to control absolutely everything. There was total control over the very setting and the staging of July 19, where every person had to remain seated. In other words, they hold enormous power and an immense fear of the situation getting out of hand, which is evidence of their political fragility within Nicaragua.
The new purge and “unauthorized corruption”
In the last few days, another wave of purges has increased. We have seen arrests of high-ranking public officials and also of former military and police officers who are allegedly being investigated for “unauthorized corruption activities” by the regime's leadership. What is behind this new purge?
Dora María Téllez: I see the hand of Rosario Murillo with the absolute complacency of Daniel Ortega. It is a political purge, that is to say, to accuse these high officials of the Ortega-Murillo regime of corruption is very easy, they’re all full of it. There is not one of them who has a clean portfolio.
So it is quite easy to accuse them of corruption. Ultimately, it’s a political purge, a sweep aimed at establishing in high-level public positions people who are unconditionally loyal to Rosario Murillo and owe her a favor.
On the other hand, this purge has to do with a warning to all public employees and especially the high officials: – whoever moves a little bit, will be removed from the picture and can end up in El Chipote [prison] or fired, in the least severe of cases. They would be mistreated with a high probability of ending up in La Modelo or the women's prison.
This is their way of warning public employees of the situation in which they find themselves. These are people who are politically active by force, who are deeply unhappy because they are in prison in Nicaragua, they are mistreated in their jobs, and they have enormous instability and fear. So, the purpose of the Ortega family is to maintain a regime of terror over public employees in all institutions. You’ll see that the INSS will continue because they have a great stash there, and surely, any day now, they could lose the favor of the Ortega family and face retribution.
Is this part of Rosario Murillo's succession to power? That is, the targets being selected—for example, the Deputy Foreign Minister was an ally of Rosario Murillo, now fallen from grace, Arlette Marenco, and even Jorge "El Cuervo" Guerrero, a former police officer and close confidant of Daniel Ortega, has been detained by the police.
Dora María Téllez: The situation with "El Cuervo" Guerrero is a notification, a warning. It informs everyone who was in the Sandinista Front guerrilla, no matter how old they are, how long they've been imprisoned, or how close they are to Daniel Ortega, that none of them have immunity and that they will all face consequences if necessary.
Everyone will be kept on their toes. That’s the reason for Jorge Guerrero’s imprisonment. He’s 81 years old, and they sent him straight to the hospital, practically. It's to notify that entire generation to stay in line, without challenging the Ortega-Murillo duo, especially Rosario Murillo, who this generation hardly likes. This is part of the succession process, with Laureano (Ortega) coming up behind, so they need to clear the path for Daniel Ortega’s successors.
Daniel is fully on board with this purge, which also reflects the regime’s internal disintegration. They haven't been able to eliminate the “external enemy.” Daniel Ortega even said he wants the United States to disappear—his mindset is about making everything disappear. He hasn’t been able to crush the resistance, so now he’s turning to the "internal enemy," targeting high-ranking public employees. The accusation against the Deputy Foreign Minister is over a 6 million córdoba (around 160,000 USD) contract, which is a trivial amount compared to the vast fortunes of the Ortega-Murillo family. So, her prosecution is evidently political. The ultimate reason? I believe it’s about succession, and Rosario is moving her pieces to position them more advantageously.
Venezuela and Isolation in Latin America
At the July 19th event, there was a noticeable absence of Latin American leaders or representatives. Present were Ramiro Valdez from Cuba and the Venezuelan Foreign Minister, but the most prominent figures were the Prime Minister of Belarus, the President of the Russian Duma, the Vice President of Zimbabwe, another high-ranking official from Burkina Faso, and Leyla Khaled, a leader from Palestine. What does this selection by Rosario Murillo signify?
Dora María Téllez: These were the only ones they could get to say yes; they had to look far and wide. They probably offered them airfare, hotel accommodations, and tourism. But the most interesting thing to me is the absence of Honduras. The Zelaya-Castro family has been great allies of Ortega-Murillo—no one from Honduras, no one from Mexico, these are very significant absences, and none from the Caribbean islands either. Now they had to look far afield, partly within Putin's Russian sphere and its allies, and another part from these new relationships they've established in Africa, which also relate to human trafficking. But what we saw there was the complete isolation of Ortega-Murillo.
Meanwhile, Nicolás Maduro is on the brink of a presidential election to be held in Venezuela next Sunday, which, for better or worse, will bring about change in Venezuela. However, Ortega looks much more isolated in Latin America and clings to Putin's Russia.
Dora María Téllez: The changes in Venezuela are going to be very significant. The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) under Maduro is banking on abstention and is running a massive campaign to erode public confidence in voting. They are confident that with large-scale abstention, they can secure victory with their votes, but that will change. Part of the recent anger from Ortega-Murillo stems from Maduro's government accepting the Barbados negotiation, which, despite its ups and downs, is moving forward. They imprison one person, then release them, imprison the restaurant owner where María Corina Machado dined, do crazy things, but it continues. They haven't managed to pull the opposition out of the electoral process and haven't ended the electoral process.
It's yet to be seen, but I don't feel the Ortega-Murillo duo is happy at all with Maduro's government taking this path because it leaves them completely isolated. Cuba is in a dire situation; the Cuban government's way of addressing its problems is by pushing migration, getting people out, which is also how Ortega seeks to solve his problems, but even the Cuban government doesn't have much left to work with. This is a process of disintegration, and it's a tremendous tragedy for the Cuban people.
Ortega didn't mention the massive exodus caused by the national crisis and his regime in Nicaragua, but he did attack the United States and Europe as the main enemies of migration. Clearly, he is justifying this policy of promoting irregular migration to the United States. Does this have consequences for Ortega's relations with the United States and the European Union?
Dora María Téllez: He is playing with human trafficking because that’s exactly what it is—people trafficking. Each Cuban pays around $6,000 to make the journey through Nicaragua, and the coyotes involved operate with tolerance from certain institutions. CONFIDENCIAL’s report is quite clear about who the big winner is in the human trafficking trade. Ortega's approach is to use this as a political weapon and confront the United States systematically.
Ortega presents himself as a compassionate figure, “sympathetic” to the migrants, but he has closed consulates in the United States, preventing thousands of Nicaraguans from applying for asylum in time and establishing themselves legally in the U.S. He has also closed consulates elsewhere, further obstructing Nicaraguan migrants’ access to assistance. Even worse, he has driven over a million Nicaraguans out of the country in the last six years due to the lack of peace, freedom, and opportunities. Yet he pretends to be distraught, as if he were not the very creator of this migrant crisis by making life impossible for Nicaraguans and exploiting desperate migrants seeking a better life. I still remember when the Army and Police fired on a group of Cuban migrants, some of whom drowned in Lake Nicaragua. Ortega doesn’t care about migrants.
Servility to Putin
Another notable aspect of this speech is Ortega's revival of the Soviet Union, which no longer exists, and his celebration and invocation of Vladimir Putin's Russia and the invasion of Ukraine. It seems he might expect Putin or Russia to resolve his problems or make economic investments in Nicaragua.
Dora María Téllez: I see Ortega as a servile figure to Putin, but at what cost? What does Putin give Daniel Ortega to warrant such servility? Ortega is always crawling to Putin and Russian interests. At least the Chinese have sent him a thousand buses, which were paid for—not a gift, but paid for. They provided that credit. But Russia hasn’t given him anything; it’s pure servility on Daniel Ortega’s part.
This also ties into another issue. Ortega spent a significant part of his speech reminiscing about the early years of the Sandinista Revolution and then transitioned to discussing the Soviet Union. What I saw was a man who seems to be losing touch with the present, possibly showing signs of Alzheimer's. It seems like older individuals losing their memory and perspective, fixating on the past while struggling with current realities.
But fundamentally, we have a man demonstrating total servility to Putin without receiving anything in return because Nicaragua has seen nothing from the Russians except for espionage facilities and police training. Ortega is playing a dangerous game, as the Russians are talking about deploying long-range missiles in response to missiles being stationed in Germany, and the places they are looking to are Cuba and Nicaragua. So, Daniel Ortega is dragging Nicaragua into a very risky game with Russia.
This article was published in Spanish in Confidencial and translated by our staff. To get the most relevant news from our English coverage delivered straight to your inbox, subscribe to The Dispatch.
